Propagation of interacting diseases on multilayer networks.

Abstract

The study on the dynamics of interacting diseases has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This paper proposes a model for two interacting epidemics spreading concurrently on a two-layer network, where both the epidemic thresholds and the dynamics of disease outbreaks are investigated. The analytical expression of the epidemic threshold shows strong coupling between the two interacting epidemics. Moreover, two metrics, the maximum prevalence and the highest spreading speed, are proposed to describe the outbreak process. Theoretical analysis together with extensive simulations illustrate the functions of various factors, including the network topological parameters, percentage of overlapped network links, vulnerable individuals, and the reciprocity of the two diseases. It is found that the seemingly important factor, i.e., the percentage of overlapped links, possesses no effect on the propagation, while the frequently overlooked factor, i.e., the percentage of vulnerable individuals, has significant effects. For the interaction of the two diseases, the recovery state of one disease is more influential than the other in both the mutually enhanced and the mutually impaired situations.