The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 30167456.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932 and PMC identifier 6114992.
- Licence recorded as CC BY-NC.
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Abstract
Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year<sup>-1</sup> for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.