Developing and validating the Personal Risk of Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus infection score in US Women.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Determining risk scores for genital high-risk human papillomavirus (HRHPV) infection in women will support more efficient cervical cancer screening strategies. OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated point scores to predict the likelihood of any genital HRHPV infection in women. METHODS: We conducted the cross-sectional analysis in 2017 and used data from the 2005-14 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (7337 women aged 25-59 years; 6300 women aged 30-59 years). Predictors were reproductive health practices, risk behaviors and demographic variables. The outcome was a positive result for any of the 21 genital HRHPV genotypes. The 2005-12 cohorts were used as training and testing sets to develop scores that best classified women into three risk groups: low risk (<20%), average risk (20-30%) and high risk (>30%). The 2013-14 cohort was used to validate the final scores. RESULTS: Two-point scores with six self-reported variables were created to predict any HRHPV risks for the two age groups: the Personal Risk of Oncogenic HPV (PRO-HPV25) for women aged 25-59 years old and PRO-HPV30 for women aged 30-59 years old. The scores were successfully prospectively validated, with good calibration with regards to the predicted and observed rates of HRHPV infection. The scores had fair discrimination (c-statistics: 0.67-0.68). CONCLUSION: The PRO-HPV risk scores can identify groups at low, average and high risk of genital HRHPV infection. This information can be used to prioritize women for cervical cancer screening in low-resource settings or to personalize screening intervals.