Density-dependent adult recruitment in a low-density tropical tree.

Abstract

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis is a well-known explanation for why tropical forests have large numbers of tree species. A fundamental prediction of the hypothesis is that the probability of adult recruitment is less in regions of high conspecific adult density, a pattern mediated by density-dependent mortality in juvenile life stages. Although there is strong evidence in many tree species that seeds, seedlings, and saplings suffer conspecific density-dependent mortality, no study has shown that adult tree recruitment is negatively density dependent. Density-dependent adult recruitment is necessary for the Janzen-Connell mechanism to regulate tree populations. Here, we report density-dependent adult recruitment in the population of <i>Handroanthus guayacan</i>, a wind-dispersed Neotropical canopy tree species. We use data from high-resolution remote sensing to track individual trees with proven capacity to flower in a lowland moist forest landscape in Panama and analyze these data in a Bayesian framework similar to capture-recapture analysis. We independently quantify probabilities of adult tree recruitment and detection and show that adult recruitment is negatively density dependent. The annualized probability of adult recruitment was 3.03% ⋅ year^-1 Despite the detection of negative density dependence in adult recruitment, it was insufficient to stabilize the adult population of <i>H. guayacan</i>, which increased significantly in size over the decade of observation.