Cost-Effectiveness of a US National Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax With a Multistakeholder Approach: Who Pays and Who Benefits.

Abstract

To estimate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for 9 distinct stakeholder groups. We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for US adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. From health care and societal perspectives, the SSB tax was highly cost-saving. When we evaluated health gains, taxes paid, and out-of-pocket health care savings for 6 distinct consumer categories, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $20 247 to $42 662 per quality-adjusted life year for 100% price pass-through (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios similar with 50% pass-through). For the beverage industry, net costs were $0.92 billion with 100% pass-through (largely tax-implementation costs) and $49.75 billion with 50% pass-through (largely because of partial industry coverage of the tax). For government, the SSB tax positively affected both tax revenues and health care cost savings. This stratified analysis improves on unitary approaches, illuminating distinct costs and benefits for stakeholders with political influence over SSB tax decisions.