Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 31001588.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aav6471 and PMC identifier 6469943.
- Licence recorded as CC BY-NC.
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Abstract
Strong decadal variations in the oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) observed over the past three decades challenge our ability to predict the strength of the ocean carbon sink. By assimilating atmospheric and oceanic observational data products into an Earth system model-based decadal prediction system, we can reproduce the observed variations of the ocean carbon uptake globally. We find that variations of the ocean CO<sub>2</sub> uptake are predictable up to 2 years in advance globally, albeit there is evidence for a higher predictive skill up to 5 years regionally. We further suggest that while temperature variations largely determine shorter-term (<3 years) predictability, nonthermal drivers are responsible for longer-term (>3 years) predictability, especially at high latitudes.