Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing.

Abstract

Measles remains a major contributor to preventable child mortality, and bridging gaps in measles immunity is a fundamental challenge to global health. In high-burden settings, mass vaccination campaigns are conducted to increase access to vaccine and address this issue. Ensuring that campaigns are optimally effective is a crucial step toward measles elimination; however, the relationship between campaign impact and disease dynamics is poorly understood. Here, we study measles in Pakistan, and we demonstrate that campaign timing can be tuned to optimally interact with local transmission seasonality and recent incidence history. We develop a mechanistic modeling approach to optimize timing in general high-burden settings, and we find that in Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of infections can be averted with no change in campaign cost.