Earlier Diagnosis Not Self-Evidently Beneficial: Natural History of Subcentimeter Lung Cancers.

Reich, Jerome M; Kim, Jong S · AJR Am J Roentgenol · 2019

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

<b>OBJECTIVE.</b> We estimated the natural history of subcentimeter stage I non-small cell lung cancers detected on screening CT using a computed mean 230-day tumor volume doubling time and exponential growth. <b>CONCLUSION.</b> We found that the majority of patients with subcentimeter, non-small cell lung cancers would survive for more than 5 years without treatment. The benefit of cancer interdiction would be offset to some extent by the combined effects of surgical mortality and materially diminished longer-term disease-free survival among the more than 40% of patients who would be overdiagnosed.

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