Five Year Outcomes in Men Screened for Carotid Artery Stenosis at 65 Years of Age: A Population Based Cohort Study.

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the outcome of 65 year old men five years after carotid ultrasound screening, as well as risk factors for disease progression. All 65 year old men living in the county of Uppsala 2007-2009 were invited to an ultrasound examination of both carotid arteries and re-invited at age 70. The cohort was grouped into normal carotids, plaque without significant stenosis, moderate stenosis (50-79%), and severe stenosis (80-99%). The rate of disease progression was assessed from ultrasound data. Data on mortality, ipsilateral neurological events, risk factors, and medication were obtained from patient records and population registries. Among men participating in carotid screening at age 65, 3,057 were re-screened at age 70. In those with normal carotids (n = 2,318), 23 (1.0%) progressed to a moderate stenosis, and four (0.2%) to a symptomatic severe stenosis. Among those with plaque (n = 696), 25 (3.6%) progressed to moderate stenosis, and eight (1.1%) to severe stenosis, of whom four (0.6%) had symptoms. Of 31 men with 50-79% stenosis, four (12.9%) had progressed to a severe stenosis, of whom two (6.5%) developed symptoms. Five of twelve subjects (42%) with 80-99% stenosis developed symptoms. Disease regression was present among 289/692 plaque (41.7%) and 16/33 stenosis (48.4%). In multivariable analysis, smoking, coronary artery disease and hypercholesterolemia were associated with disease progression. The proportions of antiplatelet, statin, and antihypertensive treatment in the population at age 70 were 22%, 29%, and 55%, respectively. Men with plaques and moderate stenosis have a good prognosis, but in those with severe stenosis there is a high risk of neurological events.