Modified frailty index predicts early outcomes after colorectal surgery: an ACS-NSQIP study.

Abstract

Frailty is defined as a decrease in physiological reserve with increased risk of morbidity following significant physiological stressors. This study examines the predictive power of the five-item modified frailty index (5-mFI) in predicting outcomes in colorectal surgery patients. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database was queried from 2011 to 2016 to determine the predictive power of 5-mFI in patients who had colorectal surgery. Of 295 490 patients, 45.8% had a score of 0, 36.2% had a score of 1 and 18% had a score of ≥ 2. On univariate analysis, frailer patients had significantly greater incidences for overall morbidity, serious morbidity, mortality, prolonged length of hospital stay, discharge to a facility other than home, reoperation and unplanned readmission. These findings were consistent on multivariate analysis where the frailest patients had greater odds of postoperative overall morbidity (OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.35-1.43), serious morbidity (OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.33-1.45), mortality (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.87-2.14), prolonged length of hospital stay (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.20-1.27), discharge destination to a facility other than home (OR 2.80; 95% CI 2.70-2.90), reoperation (OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.11-1.23) and unplanned readmission (OR 1.31; 95% CI 1.26-1.36). Weighted kappa statistics showed strong agreement between the 5-mFI and 11-mFI (kappa = 0.987, P < 0.001). The 5-mFI is a valid and easy to use predictor of 30-day postoperative outcomes after colorectal surgery. This tool may guide the surgeon to proactively recognize frail patients to instigate interventions to optimize them preoperatively.