Physical flow effects can dictate plankton population dynamics.

Abstract

Oceanic flows do not necessarily mix planktonic species. Differences in individual organisms' physical and hydrodynamic properties can cause changes in drift normal to the mean flow, leading to segregation between species. This physically driven heterogeneity may have important consequences at the scale of population dynamics. Here, we describe how one form of physical forcing, circulating flows with different inertia effects between phytoplankton and zooplankton, can dramatically alter excitable plankton bloom dynamics. This may impact our understanding of the initiation and development of harmful algal blooms (HABs), which have significant negative ecological and socio-economic consequences. We study this system in detail, providing spatio-temporal dynamics for particular scenarios and summarizing large-scale behaviour via spatially averaged bifurcation diagrams. The key message is that, across a large range of parameter values, fluid flow can induce plankton blooms and mean-field population dynamics that are distinct from those predicted for well-mixed systems. The implications for oceanic population dynamic studies are manifest: we argue that the formation of HABs will depend strongly on the physical and biological state of the ecosystem, and that local increases in zooplankton heterogeneity are likely to precede phytoplankton blooms.