Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 31388009.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w and PMC identifier 6684802.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986-2005 to 48.8-67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2-81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
Medical subject headings
- Global Warming
- Hot Temperature
- Mortality
- Urban Population