Effects of a proposal to alter the statistical significance threshold on previously published orthopaedic trauma randomized controlled trials.

Abstract

A recent proposal suggests changing the threshold for statistical significance from a P value of .05 to .005 to minimize bias and increase reproducibility of future studies. P values less than .05 but greater than .005 would be reclassified as "suggestive", whereas P values less than .005 would be considered significant. The present study explores how lowering the P value threshold would affect the interpretation of previously published orthopaedic trauma randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and whether outcomes from these trials would maintain statistical significance under the proposed P value threshold. All RCTs published between January 01, 2016 and January 31, 2018 in the Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma, Injury, and Archives of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery were screened by at least 2 authors. Data from included trials were extracted in blinded and duplicate fashion. All P values for primary endpoints were included from each study. We identified 124 primary endpoints from 48 trials: 39.5% (49/124) of endpoints had a P value less than .05 and 60.5% (75/124) had a P value greater than .05. Overall, 51.0% (25/49) of statistically significant primary endpoints were less than .005, while 49.0% (24/49) would be reclassified as suggestive. Based on our results, adopting a lower threshold of significance would heavily alter the significance of orthopaedic trauma RCTs and should be further evaluated and cautiously considered when viewing the effect such a proposal on orthopaedic practice.