Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts.

Abstract

Variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are associated with a wide array of regional climate extremes and ecosystem impacts¹. Robust, long-lead forecasts would therefore be valuable for managing policy responses. But despite decades of effort, forecasting ENSO events at lead times of more than one year remains problematic². Here we show that a statistical forecast model employing a deep-learning approach produces skilful ENSO forecasts for lead times of up to one and a half years. To circumvent the limited amount of observation data, we use transfer learning to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) first on historical simulations³ and subsequently on reanalysis from 1871 to 1973. During the validation period from 1984 to 2017, the all-season correlation skill of the Nino3.4 index of the CNN model is much higher than those of current state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems. The CNN model is also better at predicting the detailed zonal distribution of sea surface temperatures, overcoming a weakness of dynamical forecast models. A heat map analysis indicates that the CNN model predicts ENSO events using physically reasonable precursors. The CNN model is thus a powerful tool for both the prediction of ENSO events and for the analysis of their associated complex mechanisms.