Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions.
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Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 31964859.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-13899-4 and PMC identifier 6972758.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF[Formula: see text]), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF[Formula: see text]). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 [Formula: see text]). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg [Formula: see text]-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.