A Bayesian approach to discrete multiple outcome network meta-analysis.

Abstract

In this paper we suggest a new Bayesian approach to network meta-analysis for the case of discrete multiple outcomes. The joint distribution of the discrete outcomes is modeled through a Gaussian copula with binomial marginals. The remaining elements of the hierarchial random effects model are specified in a standard way, with the logit of the success probabilities given by the sum of a baseline log-odds and random effects comparing the log-odds of each treatment against the reference and having a Gaussian distribution centered at the vector of pooled effects. An adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised for running posterior inference. The model is applied to two datasets from Cochrane reviews, already analysed in two papers so to assess and compare its performance. We implemented the model in a freely available R package called netcopula.