Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 32499522.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-16631-9 and PMC identifier 7272422.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a key circulation system controlling the summer monsoon and typhoon activities over the western Pacific, but future projections of its changes remain hugely uncertain. Here we find two leading modes that account for nearly 80% intermodel spread in its future projection under a high emission scenario. They are linked to a cold-tongue-like bias in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and a warm bias beneath the marine stratocumulus, respectively. Observational constraints using sea surface temperature patterns reduce the uncertainties by 45% and indicate a robust intensification of the WNPSH due to suppressed warming in the western Pacific and enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, leading to 28% more rainfall projected in East China and 36% less rainfall in Southeast Asia than suggested by the multi-model mean. The intensification of the WNPSH implies more future monsoon rainfall and heatwaves but less typhoon landfalls over East Asia.