Construction and Comparison of Predictive Models for Length of Stay after Total Knee Arthroplasty: Regression Model and Machine Learning Analysis Based on 1,826 Cases in a Single Singapore Center.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model for length of stay (LOS) after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Between 2013 and 2014, 1,826 patients who underwent TKA from a single Singapore center were enrolled in the study after qualification. Demographics of patients with normal and prolonged LOS were analyzed. The risk variables that could affect LOS were identified by univariate analysis. Predictive models for LOS after TKA by logistic regression or machine learning were constructed and compared. The univariate analysis showed that age, American Society of Anesthesiologist level, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, general anesthesia, and operation duration were risk factors that could affect LOS (<i>p</i> < 0.05). Comparing with logistic regression models, the machine learning model with all variables was the best model to predict LOS after TKA, of whose area of operator characteristic curve was 0.738. Machine learning algorithms improved the predictive performance of LOS prediction models for TKA patients.