Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Attack Rates and Antibody Dynamics in Children Using Cross-Sectional Serological Data.

Minter, Amanda; Hoschler, Katja; Jagne, Ya Jankey; Sallah, Hadijatou; Armitage, Edwin; Lindsey, Benjamin; Hay, James A; Riley, Steven et al. · J Infect Dis · 2022

cross_sectional · Level IV

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Abstract

Directly measuring evidence of influenza infections is difficult, especially in low-surveillance settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. Using a Bayesian model, we estimated unobserved infection times and underlying antibody responses to influenza A/H3N2, using cross-sectional serum antibody responses to 4 strains in children aged 24-60 months. Among the 242 individuals, we estimated a variable seasonal attack rate and found that most children had ≥1 infection before 2 years of age. Our results are consistent with previously published high attack rates in children. The modeling approach highlights how cross-sectional serological data can be used to estimate epidemiological dynamics.

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