No news is good news? Three-year postdischarge mortality of octogenarian and nonagenarian patients following emergency general surgery.

Abstract

Outcome data on the very elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) are sparse. We sought to examine short- and long-term mortality in the 80 plus years population following EGS. Using our institutional 2008-2018 EGS Database, all the 80 plus years patients undergoing EGS were identified. The data were linked to the Social Security Death Index to determine cumulative mortality rates up to 3 years after discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of in-hospital and 1-year cumulative mortality. A total of 385 patients were included with a mean age of 84 years; 54% were female. The two most common comorbidities were hypertension (76.1%) and cardiovascular disease (40.5%). The most common procedures performed were colectomy (20.0%), small bowel resection (18.2%), and exploratory laparotomy for other procedures (15.3%; e.g., internal hernia, perforated peptic ulcer). The overall in-hospital mortality was 18.7%. Cumulative mortality rates at 1, 2, and 3 years after discharge were 34.3%, 40.5%, and 43.4%, respectively. The EGS procedure associated with the highest 1-year mortality was colectomy (49.4%). Although hypertension, renal failure, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and elevated liver enzymes predicted in-hospital mortality, the only independent predictors of cumulative 1-year mortality were hypoalbuminemia (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.27; p = 0.025) and elevated serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGOT) level (odds ratio, 2.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.70; p = 0.029) at initial presentation. Patients with both factors had a cumulative 1-year mortality rate of 75.0%. More than half of the very elderly patients undergoing major EGS were still alive at 3 years postdischarge. The combination of hypoalbuminemia and elevated liver enzymes predicted the highest 1-year mortality. Such information can prove useful for patient and family counseling preoperatively. Prognostic, Level III.