Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions.

Lurie, Mark N; Silva, Joe; Yorlets, Rachel R; Tao, Jun; Chan, Philip A · J Infect Dis · 2020

cross_sectional · Level IV

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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020. We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state, and in association with stay-at-home orders. The epidemic doubling time in the United States was 2.68 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30-3.24 days) before widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 460% to 15 days (12.89-17.94 days) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, the median increase in doubling time was 60% (95% CI, 9.2-223.3), compared with 269% (95% CI, 277.0-394.0) for states with stay-at-home orders. Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.

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