Conditional risk of diverticulitis after non-operative management.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to describe conditional recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients after an index episode of diverticulitis managed without surgery, and to estimate the difference in conditional RFS for diverticulitis according to specific risk factors. This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study including all patients managed without surgery for acute sigmoid diverticulitis at two university-affiliated hospitals in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Conditional RFS for diverticulitis was estimated over 10 years of follow-up. A Cox proportional hazards model was performed at the index episode and again 2 years later. In total, 991 patients were included for analysis. The 1, 2- and 3-year actuarial diverticulitis RFS rates were 81·1, 71·5 and 67·5 per cent respectively. Compared with the 1-year actuarial RFS rate of 81·1 per cent, the 1-year conditional RFS increased with each additional year survived recurrence-free, reaching 96·0 per cent after surviving the first 4 years recurrence-free. A similar phenomenon was observed for 2-year diverticulitis conditional RFS. Lower age (hazard ratio (HR) 0·98, 95 per cent c.i. 0·98 to 0·99), Charlson Co-morbidity Index score of 2 or above (HR 1·78, 1·32 to 2·39) and immunosuppression (HR 1·85, 1·38 to 2·48) were independently associated with recurrence of diverticulitis from the index episode. At 2 years from the index episode, immunosuppression was no longer associated with diverticulitis recurrence (HR 1·02, 0·50 to 2·09). The conditional RFS of patients with diverticulitis improved with each year that was survived recurrence-free. Although several factors at index presentation may be associated with early recurrence, the conditional probability of recurrence according to many of these risk factors converged with time.