Prognostic nomogram for patients with minor stroke and transient ischaemic attack.

Abstract

Ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) share a common cause. We aim to develop and validate a concise prognostic nomogram for patients with minor stroke and TIA. A total of 994 patients with minor stroke and TIA were included. They were split into a derivation (n=746) and validation (n=248) cohort. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores 3 months after onset were used to assess the prognosis as unfavourable outcome (mRS≥2) or favourable outcome (mRS<2). The final model included seven independent predictors: gender, age, baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, white blood cell and serum uric acid. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for predicting the outcome was 0.775 (95% CI 0.735 to 0.814), which was confirmed by the validation cohort (C-index=0.787 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.853)). The calibration curve showed that the nomogram-based predictions were consistent with actual observation in both derivation cohort and validation cohort. The proposed nomogram showed favourable predictive accuracy for minor stroke and TIA. This has the potential to contribute to clinical decision-making.