A novel approach to predicting exceptional growth in research.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 32931500.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0239177 and PMC identifier 7491740.
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Abstract
The prediction of exceptional or surprising growth in research is an issue with deep roots and few practical solutions. In this study, we develop and validate a novel approach to forecasting growth in highly specific research communities. Each research community is represented by a cluster of papers. Multiple indicators were tested, and a composite indicator was created that predicts which research communities will experience exceptional growth over the next three years. The accuracy of this predictor was tested using hundreds of thousands of community-level forecasts and was found to exceed the performance benchmarks established in Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity's (IARPA) Foresight Using Scientific Exposition (FUSE) program in six of nine major fields in science. Furthermore, 10 of 11 disciplines within the Computing Technologies field met the benchmarks. Specific detailed forecast examples are given and evaluated, and a critical evaluation of the forecasting approach is also provided.
Medical subject headings
- Forecasting
- Models, Theoretical
- Research