Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 33007054.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0240153 and PMC identifier 7531857.
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Abstract
The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.
Medical subject headings
- Coronavirus Infections
- Models, Statistical
- Pneumonia, Viral