Probabilistic Regularized Extreme Learning for Robust Modeling of Traffic Flow Forecasting.

Abstract

The adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a structured multioutput learning machine that has been successfully adopted in learning problems without noise or outliers. However, it does not work well for learning problems with noise or outliers. High-accuracy real-time forecasting of traffic flow is extremely difficult due to the effect of noise or outliers from complex traffic conditions. In this study, a novel probabilistic learning system, probabilistic regularized extreme learning machine combined with ANFIS (probabilistic R-ELANFIS), is proposed to capture the correlations among traffic flow data and, thereby, improve the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting. The new learning system adopts a fantastic objective function that minimizes both the mean and the variance of the model bias. The results from an experiment based on real-world traffic flow data showed that, compared with some kernel-based approaches, neural network approaches, and conventional ANFIS learning systems, the proposed probabilistic R-ELANFIS achieves competitive performance in terms of forecasting ability and generalizability.