Air Pollution as a Risk Factor for Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma. A 15-Year Population-based Cohort Study.

Abstract

<b>Rationale:</b> Current evidence on the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and new onset of chronic lung disease is inconclusive.<b>Objectives:</b> To examine associations of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adult-onset asthma with past exposure to fine particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and the redox-weighted average of NO₂ and O₃ (O_x) and characterize the concentration-response relationship.<b>Methods:</b> We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Ontarians, aged 35-85 years, from 2001 to 2015. A 3-year moving average of residential exposures to selected pollutants with a 1-year lag were estimated during follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazard models and Aalen additive-hazard models to quantify the pollution-disease associations and characterized the shape of these relationships using newly developed nonlinear risk models.<b>Measurements and Main Results:</b> Among 5.1 million adults, we identified 340,733 and 218,005 incident cases of COPD and asthma, respectively. We found positive associations of COPD with PM_2.5 per interquartile-range (IQR) increase of 3.4 μg/m³ (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.08), NO₂ per IQR increase of 13.9 ppb (1.04; 1.02-1.05), O₃ per IQR increase of 6.3 ppb (1.04; 1.03-1.04), and O_x per IQR increase of 4.4 ppb (1.03; 1.03-1.03). By contrast, we did not find strong evidence linking these pollutants to adult-onset asthma. In addition, we quantified that each IQR increase in pollution exposure yielded 3.0 (2.4-3.6), 3.2 (2.0-4.3), 1.9 (1.3-2.5), and 2.3 (1.7-2.9) excess cases of COPD per 100,000 adults for PM_2.5, NO₂, O₃, and O_x, respectively. Furthermore, most pollutant-COPD relationships exhibited supralinear shapes.<b>Conclusions:</b> Air pollution was associated with a higher incidence of COPD but was not associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset asthma.