The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 33172993.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1073/pnas.2018286117 and PMC identifier 7720174.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> -the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.
Medical subject headings
- COVID-19
- Movement
- Pandemics
- Spatio-Temporal Analysis