External validation and comparison of the Brock model and Lung-RADS for the baseline lung cancer CT screening using data from the Korean Lung Cancer Screening Project.

Abstract

To validate and compare the performance of the Brock model and Lung CT Screening Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) on nodules detected by baseline CT screening. We performed a secondary analysis of the Korean Lung Cancer Screening Project (K-LUCAS; ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03394703), a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study. From April 2017 to December 2018, low-dose CT screening was performed on high-risk subjects. Discrimination and calibration of Brock models 2a and 2b (i.e., full model without and with spiculation, respectively) were assessed, and discrimination was compared with that of Lung-RADS, which utilized subjective assessment categories 2b (b stands for benign) and 4X. Of the 13,150 subjects, 4578 were eligible (median age 62 years; 4458 men; 9929 nodules including 40 lung cancers). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.96 (IQR 0.92-0.99) for Brock model 2a, 0.96 (IQR 0.92-0.99) for Brock model 2b, and 0.95 (IQR 0.91-0.99) for Lung-RADS (p = 0.32 and p = 0.34, respectively). At an equivalent cutoff of 5%, Brock model 2b (sensitivity 87.5% [35/40]; specificity 93.6% [9259/9889]; positive predictive value [PPV] 5.3% [35/665]; negative predictive value [NPV] 99.9% [9259/9264]) and Lung-RADS (sensitivity 87.5% [35/40]; specificity 93.3% [9222/9889]; PPV 5.0% [35/702]; NPV 99.9% [9222/9227]) performed similarly well (all p > 0.05). The calibration performance of both Brock models 2a and 2b was poor (both p < 0.001). Lung-RADS, when reinforced with visual assessment-based categories, has a similar diagnostic performance to the Brock model for baseline CT scans. • Brock model 2b and Lung CT Screening Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) demonstrated a similar discrimination performance for lung cancer in the baseline CT screening (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.96 vs. 0.95; p = 0.34). • When visual assessment-based categories were removed from Lung-RADS, specificity and positive predictive value were lower than those of Brock model 2b (p = 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively). • The Brock model showed poor calibration (p < 0.001).