Carbonate-silicate cycle predictions of Earth-like planetary climates and testing the habitable zone concept.

Lehmer, Owen R; Catling, David C; Krissansen-Totton, Joshua · Nat Commun · 2020

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Abstract

In the conventional habitable zone (HZ) concept, a CO<sub>2</sub>-H<sub>2</sub>O greenhouse maintains surface liquid water. Through the water-mediated carbonate-silicate weathering cycle, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> partial pressure (pCO<sub>2</sub>) responds to changes in surface temperature, stabilizing the climate over geologic timescales. We show that this weathering feedback ought to produce a log-linear relationship between pCO<sub>2</sub> and incident flux on Earth-like planets in the HZ. However, this trend has scatter because geophysical and physicochemical parameters can vary, such as land area for weathering and CO<sub>2</sub> outgassing fluxes. Using a coupled climate and carbonate-silicate weathering model, we quantify the likely scatter in pCO<sub>2</sub> with orbital distance throughout the HZ. From this dispersion, we predict a two-dimensional relationship between incident flux and pCO<sub>2</sub> in the HZ and show that it could be detected from at least 83 (2σ) Earth-like exoplanet observations. If fewer Earth-like exoplanets are observed, testing the HZ hypothesis from this relationship could be difficult.