Group-affirmation and trust in international relations: Evidence from Ukraine.

Abstract

How can states with a history of recent armed conflict trust one another? Distrust between Ukraine and Russia aggravates security fears and limits hopes for a meaningful resolution of the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since 1994. Hostility levels have risen dramatically between the populations of Ukraine and Russia after the events of 2013-2015. Political psychology offers two competing approaches to increase trust between the publics of different countries: appealing to an overarching, common identity above the national level vs. affirming a sense of national identity. This project asks which of these approaches increases trust towards Russia among the Ukrainian public. The study employs a survey experiment (between-subjects design) to evaluate these competing claims. The survey is to be fielded by a reputable public opinion research firm, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, based in Ukraine.