The mortality impacts of current and planned coal-fired power plants in India.

Abstract

We examine the health implications of electricity generation from the 2018 stock of coal-fired power plants in India, as well as the health impacts of the expansion in coal-fired generation capacity expected to occur by 2030. We estimate emissions of SO₂, NO_X, and particulate matter 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) for each plant and use a chemical transport model to estimate the impact of power plant emissions on ambient PM_2.5 Concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) are used to project the impacts of changes in PM_2.5 on mortality. Current plus planned plants will contribute, on average, 13% of ambient PM_2.5 in India. This reflects large absolute contributions to PM_2.5 in central India and parts of the Indo-Gangetic plain (up to 20 μg/m³). In the south of India, coal-fired power plants account for 20-25% of ambient PM_2.5 We estimate 112,000 deaths are attributable annually to current plus planned coal-fired power plants. Not building planned plants would avoid at least 844,000 premature deaths over the life of these plants. Imposing a tax on electricity that reflects these local health benefits would incentivize the adoption of renewable energy.