A reservoir computing approach for forecasting and regenerating both dynamical and time-delay controlled financial system behavior.

Abstract

Significant research in reservoir computing over the past two decades has revived interest in recurrent neural networks. Owing to its ingrained capability of performing high-speed and low-cost computations this has become a panacea for multi-variate complex systems having non-linearity within their relationships. Modelling economic and financial trends has always been a challenging task owing to their volatile nature and no linear dependence on associated influencers. Prior studies aimed at effectively forecasting such financial systems, but, always left a visible room for optimization in terms of cost, speed and modelling complexities. Our work employs a reservoir computing approach complying to echo-state network principles, along with varying strengths of time-delayed feedback to model a complex financial system. The derived model is demonstrated to act robustly towards influence of trends and other fluctuating parameters by effectively forecasting long-term system behavior. Moreover, it also re-generates the financial system unknowns with a high degree of accuracy when only limited future data is available, thereby, becoming a reliable feeder for any long-term decision making or policy formulations.