Post-tuberculosis airway disease: A population-based cohort study of people immigrating to British Columbia, Canada, 1985-2015.

Abstract

Current epidemiological evidence of post-TB airway disease is largely cross-sectional and derived from high-TB-incidence settings. We present the first cohort study of post-TB airway disease in a low-TB-incidence setting. (1) analyze the risk of airway disease by respiratory TB, (2) assess potential unmeasured confounding between TB and airway disease, and (3) investigate TB effect measure modification. A population-based cohort study using healthcare claims data for immigrants to British Columbia (BC), Canada, 1985-2015. Airway disease included chronic airway obstruction, asthma, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, and emphysema. Respiratory TB was defined from TB registry data. Cox proportional hazards (PH) regressions were used to analyze time-to-airway disease by respiratory TB. Sensitivity analyses included varying definitions of TB and airway disease. Potential unmeasured confounding by smoking was evaluated by E-value and hybrid least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS). In our cohort (<i>N</i> = 1 005 328; n_TB=1141) there were 116 840 incident cases of airway disease during our 30-year study period (10.43 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up), with cumulative incidence of 42·5% among respiratory TB patients compared with 11·6% among non-TB controls. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for airway disease by respiratory TB was 2·08 (95% CI: 1·91-2·28) with E-value=3·58. The LASSO-hdPS analysis produced aHR=2·26 (95% CI: 2·07-2·47). A twofold higher risk of airway disease was observed among immigrants diagnosed with respiratory TB, compared with non-TB controls, in a low-TB-incidence setting. Unmeasured confounding is unlikely to explain this relationship. Models of post-TB care are needed. Canadian Institutes of Health Research.