Optimum diameter threshold for lung nodules at baseline lung cancer screening with low-dose chest CT: exploration of results from the Korean Lung Cancer Screening Project.

Abstract

To explore the optimum diameter threshold for solid nodules to define positive results at baseline screening low-dose CT (LDCT) and to compare two-dimensional and volumetric measurement of lung nodules for the diagnosis of lung cancers. We included consecutive participants from the Korean Lung Cancer Screening project between 2017 and 2018. The average transverse diameter and effective diameter (diameter of a sphere with the same volume) of lung nodules were measured by semi-automated segmentation. Diagnostic performances for lung cancers diagnosed within 1 year after LDCT were evaluated using area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs), sensitivities, and specificities, with diameter thresholds for solid nodules ranging from 6 to 10 mm. The reduction of unnecessary follow-up LDCTs and the diagnostic delay of lung cancers were estimated for each threshold. Fifty-two lung cancers were diagnosed among 10,424 (10,141 men; median age 62 years) participants within 1 year after LDCT. Average transverse (0.980) and effective diameters (0.981) showed similar AUCs (p = .739). Elevating the average transverse diameter threshold from 6 to 9 mm resulted in a significantly increased specificity (91.7 to 96.7%, p < .001), a modest reduction in sensitivity (96.2 to 94.2%, p = .317), a 60.2% estimated reduction of unnecessary follow-up LDCTs, and a diagnostic delay in 1.9% of lung cancers. Elevating the threshold to 10 mm led to a significant reduction in sensitivity (86.5%, p = .025). Elevating the diameter threshold for solid nodules from 6 to 9 mm may lead to a substantial reduction in unnecessary follow-up LDCTs with a small proportion of diagnostic delay of lung cancers. • Elevation of the diameter threshold for solid nodules from 6 to 9 mm can substantially reduce unnecessary follow-up LDCTs with a small proportion of diagnostic delay of lung cancers. • The average transverse and effective diameters of lung nodules showed similar performances for the prediction of a lung cancer diagnosis.