County-Level Socioeconomic and Political Predictors of Distancing for COVID-19.

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented social distancing measures to slow viral transmission. This work aims to determine the extent to which socioeconomic and political conditions have shaped community-level distancing behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially how these dynamics have evolved over time. This study used daily data on physical distancing from 15‒17 million cell phone users in 3,037 U.S. counties. County-level changes in the average distance traveled per person were estimated relative to prepandemic weeks as a proxy for physical distancing. Pooled ordinary least squares regressions estimated the association between physical distancing and a variety of county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and political characteristics by week from March 9, 2020 to January 17, 2021. Data were collected until January 2021, at which point the analyses were finalized. Lower per capita income and greater Republican orientation were associated with significantly reduced physical distancing throughout nearly all the study period. These associations persisted after adjusting for a variety of county-level demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Other county-level characteristics, such as the shares of Black and Hispanic residents, were associated with reduced distancing at various points during the study period. These results highlight the importance of dynamic socioeconomic and political gradients in preventive behavior and imply the need for nimble policy responses.