Editorial Commentary: Knowledge of Past Citations in Arthroscopic Research May Yield Wisdom for a Snapshot of Future Trends.

Abstract

Predicting future trends in arthroscopic and related surgery can be a challenging task for researchers, authors, editors, and clinicians alike. Analysis of high-citation articles from the past may guide future research. Cartilage had been the most highly cited topic in the arthroscopic literature, but the last 5 years has been overtaken by shoulder and rotator cuff. Following close behind is the hip arthroscopy literature, which is clearly moving up in the citation rankings. As highly cited "classic" articles become common knowledge, their overwhelming impact on citation will lessen, allowing the next generation of articles and topics to flourish. We may benefit from the analysis of arthroscopic topics in smaller time frames to predict future trends to give us a more up-to-date prediction of the future. The sweet spot may be somewhere between 5 to 10 years rather than since the inception of journal metrics to help predict where the literature is going. This is not to say that the classic articles aren't critically important, but they are just that, classic, and not necessarily predictive of the future.