Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States.

Yang, Bingyi; Huang, Angkana T; Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo; Hart, William E; Staid, Andrea; Hitchings, Matt D T; Lee, Elizabeth C; Howe, Chanelle J et al. · Nat Commun · 2021

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Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R<sub>eff</sub>) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R<sub>eff</sub> below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R<sub>eff</sub> 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median R<sub>eff</sub> 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

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