Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales.

McDuffie, Erin E; Martin, Randall V; Spadaro, Joseph V; Burnett, Richard; Smith, Steven J; O'Rourke, Patrick; Hammer, Melanie S; van Donkelaar, Aaron et al. · Nat Commun · 2021

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Abstract

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM<sub>2.5</sub> disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74-1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM<sub>2.5</sub> burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52-0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32-0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28-0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

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