Readily accessible risk model to predict in-hospital major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute myocardial infarction: a retrospective study of Chinese patients.

Abstract

Rapid, accurate identification of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at high risk of in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE) is critical for risk stratification and prompt management. This study aimed to develop a simple, accessible tool for predicting in-hospital MACE in Chinese patients with AMI. Retrospective review of deidentified medical records. 38 urban and rural hospitals across diverse economic and geographic areas in China (Beijing, Henan Province and Jilin Province). 15 009 patients discharged from hospital with a diagnosis of AMI. The primary outcome was MACE occurrence during index hospitalisation. A multivariate logistic regression model (China AMI Risk Model, CHARM) derived using patient data from Beijing (n=7329) and validated with data from Henan (n=4247) and Jilin (n=3433) was constructed to predict the primary outcome using variables of age, white cell count (WCC) and Killip class. C-statistics evaluated discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts, with goodness-of-fit assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. The CHARM model included age (OR: 1.06 per 1-year increment, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.07, p<0.001), WCC (OR per 10⁹/L increment: 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.13), p<0.001) and Killip class (class II vs class I: OR 1.34 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.83), p=0.06; class III vs class I: OR 2.74 (95% CI 1.86 to 3.97), p<0.001; class IV vs class I: OR 14.12 (95% CI 10.35 to 19.29), p<0.001). C-statistics were similar between the derivation and validation datasets. CHARM had a higher true positive rate than the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction score and similar to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were 5.5 (p=0.703) for derivation, 41.1 (p<0.001) for Henan, and 103.2 for Jilin (p<0.001) validation sets with CHARM, compared with 119.6, 34.0 and 459.1 with GRACE (all p<0.001). The CHARM model provides an inexpensive, accurate and readily accessible tool for predicting in-hospital MACE in Chinese patients with AMI.