The Physiological Deep Learner: First application of multitask deep learning to predict hypotension in critically ill patients.

Abstract

Critical care clinicians are trained to analyze simultaneously multiple physiological parameters to predict critical conditions such as hemodynamic instability. We developed the Multi-task Learning Physiological Deep Learner (MTL-PDL), a deep learning algorithm that predicts simultaneously the mean arterial pressure (MAP) and the heart rate (HR). In an external validation dataset, our model exhibited very good calibration: R² of 0.747 (95% confidence interval, 0.692 to 0.794) and 0.850 (0.815 to 0.879) for respectively, MAP and HR prediction 60-minutes ahead of time. For acute hypotensive episodes defined as a MAP below 65 mmHg for 5 min, our MTL-PDL reached a predictive value of 90% for patients at very high risk (predicted MAP ≤ 60 mmHg) and 2‰ for patients at low risk (predicted MAP >70 mmHg). Based on its excellent prediction performance, the Physiological Deep Learner has the potential to help the clinician proactively adjust the treatment in order to avoid hypotensive episodes and end-organ hypoperfusion.