Mendelian Randomization Focused Analysis of Vitamin D on the Secondary Prevention of Ischemic Stroke.

Abstract

Experimental studies showed vitamin D (Vit-D) could promote vascular regeneration and repair. Prior randomized studies had focused mainly on primary prevention. Whether Vit-D protects against ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction recurrence among subjects with prior ischemic insults was unknown. Here, we dissected through Mendelian randomization any effect of Vit-D on the secondary prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Based on a genetic risk score for Vit-D constructed from a derivation cohort sample (n=5331, 45% Vit-D deficient, 89% genotyped) via high-throughput exome-chip screening of 12 prior genome-wide association study-identified genetic variants of Vit-D mechanistic pathways (<i>rs2060793</i>, <i>rs4588</i>, and <i>rs7041</i>; F statistic, 73; <i>P</i><0.001), we performed a focused analysis on prospective recurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in an independent subsample with established ischemic disease (n=441, all with prior first ischemic event; follow-up duration, 41.6±14.3 years) under a 2-sample, individual-data, prospective Mendelian randomization approach. In the ischemic disease subsample, 11.1% (n=49/441) had developed recurrent ischemic stroke or MI and 13.3% (n=58/441) had developed recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that genetic risk score predicted improved event-free survival from recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (log-rank, 13.0; <i>P</i>=0.001). Cox regression revealed that genetic risk score independently predicted reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI combined (hazards ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.48-0.81]; <i>P</i><0.001), after adjusted for potential confounders. Mendelian randomization supported that Vit-D is causally protective against the primary end points of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (Wald estimate: odds ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.35-0.81]) and any recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI (odds ratio, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.42-0.91]) and recurrent MI alone (odds ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.30-0.81]). Genetically predicted lowering in Vit-D level is causal for the recurrence of ischemic vascular events in persons with prior ischemic stroke or MI.