Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Abstract

This study attempts to solve the publication bias suggested by recent review articles in the tourism-growth literature. Publication bias is the tendency to report favourable and significant results. Method and data triangulation, and the Solow-Swan model are applied. A sample from 1995 to 2018 is considered with Tonga as a case study. The approach consists of multiple methods, data frequencies, exchange rates, structural breaks, and an overall tourism index developed using principal component analysis (PCA). Consistent results across these dimensions are obtained with the PCA models. Tourism has small, positive, and statistically significant economic growth effects. Theoretically consistent values of the capital share and exchange rates are obtained. The results indicate the importance of multiple methods and the overall tourism index in assessing the tourism-growth relationship and minimising publication biases. The practical implication is the provision of robust elasticity estimates and better economic policies.