How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 34873059.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1073/pnas.2108395118 and PMC identifier 8670441.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
Medical subject headings
- Coronavirus Infections