Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 34880228.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2 and PMC identifier 8655081.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the 'Reasons for Concern' framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5-2 °C and very high risks between 2-3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.