HAprog: A New Prognostic Application to Assist Oncologists in Routine Care.

Abstract

More patients are seeing palliative care (PC) earlier in the disease trajectory. The Barretos Prognostic Nomogram (BPN) was designed to fill the gap of survival prognostication for patients with advanced cancer and months of life expectancy. However, its routine use is limited by the common need for a ruler and calculator. Additionally, the BPN requires blood tests. The aim is to refine the BPN and to create a prognostic application (App) for use on smartphones. This is a reanalysis of the two cohorts of advanced cancer patients (development, n=215 and validation, n=276). The variable 'metastasis' was revised (volume-site combinations) and 'KPS' replaced by 'ECOG-PS'. Prognostic variables were selected for multivariable Cox and Log-logistic parametric regression analyses; the most accurate final models were identified by backward variable elimination. Calibration and discrimination properties were evaluated in the validation sample. The 'full version' model is composed of 6 parameters: sex, locoregional disease, sites of metastasis, ECOG-PS, WBC and albumin. In the 'clinical version' model (5 variables), the variable 'antineoplastic treatment' was included and the laboratory variables were excluded. At validation, both models were well calibrated and presented adequate c-Index values (0.778 and 0.739). HAprog is a freely downloadable offline App that is used by clinicians to calculate prognosis in less than 1 minute. The new models that integrate HAprog are refined prognostic tools with adequate calibration and discrimination properties. It has potential practical impact for the oncologist dealing with outpatients with advanced cancer during the decision-making process.