Multi-channel fusion LSTM for medical event prediction using EHRs.

Abstract

Automatic medical event prediction (MEP), e.g. diagnosis prediction, medication prediction, using electronic health records (EHRs) is a popular research direction in health informatics. In many cases, MEP relies on the determinations from different types of medical events, which demonstrates the heterogeneous nature of EHRs. However, most existing methods for MEP fail to distinguishingly model the type of event that is highly associated with the prediction task, i.e. task-wise event, which usually plays a more significant role than other events. In this paper, we proposed a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM)-based method for MEP, named Multi-Channel Fusion LSTM (MCF-LSTM), which models the correlations between different types of medical events using multiple network channels. To this end, we designed a task-wise fusion module, in which a gated network is applied to select how much information can be transferred between events. Furthermore, the irregular temporal interval between adjacent medical visits is also modeled in an individual channel, which is combined with other events in a unified manner. We compared MCF-LSTM with state-of-the-art methods on four MEP tasks on two public datasets: MIMIC-III and eICU. Experimental results show that MCF-LSTM achieves promising results on AUC(receiver operating characteristic curve), AUPR (area under the precision-recall curve), and top-k recall, and outperforms other methods with high stability.