Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales.

Abstract

Enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification, AA) in the last decades has been linked to several factors including sea ice and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, how these factors contributed to AA variations in a long-term perspective remains unclear. By reconstructing a millennial AA index combining climate model simulations with recently available proxy data, this work determines the important influences of the AMO and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing on AA variations in the last millennium, leading to identification of a significant downward trend of AA on top of a sustained strong AMO modulation at the multidecadal scales. The decreased AA during the industrial era was strongly associated with the anthropogenic forcing, proving the emerging role of the forcing in reducing the AA strength.