Novel quantification of regional fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> reductions during COVID-19 lockdowns using atmospheric oxygen measurements.

Pickers, Penelope A; Manning, Andrew C; Le Quéré, Corinne; Forster, Grant L; Luijkx, Ingrid T; Gerbig, Christoph; Fleming, Leigh S; Sturges, William T · Sci Adv · 2022

Where this comes from

Abstract

It is not currently possible to quantify regional-scale fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO<sub>2</sub>) emissions with high accuracy in near real time. Existing atmospheric methods for separating ffCO<sub>2</sub> from large natural carbon dioxide variations are constrained by sampling limitations, so that estimates of regional changes in ffCO<sub>2</sub> emissions, such as those occurring in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns, rely on indirect activity data. We present a method for quantifying regional signals of ffCO<sub>2</sub> based on continuous atmospheric measurements of oxygen and carbon dioxide combined into the tracer "atmospheric potential oxygen" (APO). We detect and quantify ffCO<sub>2</sub> reductions during 2020-2021 caused by the two U.K. COVID-19 lockdowns individually using APO data from Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom and a machine learning algorithm. Our APO-based assessment has near-real-time potential and provides high-frequency information that is in good agreement with the spread of ffCO<sub>2</sub> emissions reductions from three independent lower-frequency U.K. estimates.