Longitudinal latent class analysis of tobacco use and correlates among young adults over a 10-year period.

Abstract

We assessed patterns and correlates, including demographic characteristics, psychological factors, and social role transitions, of young adults' tobacco use over time. In the fall of 2010, we recruited a cohort of 3146 students from 11 colleges in North Carolina and Virginia. Participants completed baseline and at least two survey waves between 2010 and 2019. The sample was 49.8% female, 15.7% non-white, and 6.6% Hispanic. Longitudinal latent class analysis revealed a five-class model with distinct patterns and correlates of tobacco use. Limited Use (52.6% of sample) had minimal use. College-Limited Combustible Tobacco Users (18.6%) had moderate probability of cigarette, cigar, and waterpipe smoking, which decreased to no use post-college. Intermittent Sustained Polytobacco Users (10.9%) had low probability of use that continued post-college. College Polytobacco with Continued Cigarette and E-Cigarette Users (14.5%) had high probability of use of cigarette smoking and increasing probability of e-cigarette, both of which continued post-college. Sustained Polytobacco Users (5.7%) had moderate probability of use of tobacco products across all waves. Patterns of tobacco use varied considerably. In most classes, tobacco use was highest during freshman year and in three classes, use continued post-college. Prevention activities should focus on first-year students and target those at risk for post-college tobacco use.